The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale: Guida vs. Pettis Preview and Predictions

The thirteenth season of The Ultimate Fighter has finally reached the end. Some will tell you it was one of the more intriguing seasons, but other's will tell you that this season was a let-down. I fall into the latter. There were few factors that contributed to this being  one of the lowest rated seasons in the series history, but the biggest one seemed to be in the fact that this season lacked any sense of excitment. The competitors seemed to lack any kind of likeable personalities, and their just business attitude toward competition led to humdrum fights with predictable outcomes. As slow as this season may have been there is no denying that the finalists, Tony Ferguson and Ramsey Nijem, are the most talented of the group, but they just seem to lack the drive that you would find when watching a future champion. The proverbial road for the both fighters ends here as both are set to face-off to determine who will be crowned "The Ultimate Fighter".

*Betting lines provided by sportsbook.com
Preliminary Bouts

Reuben Duran (-215) vs. Francisco Rivera (+175) [BW]

The first fight of the night also promises to be one of the most exciting. Although both Duran and Rivera are coming off of losses, they made enough of an impression to warrant their return. Though both defeated in their UFC debuts it seems Duran has more tools to finish this fight. His loss to former Bantamweight title contender Takeya Mizugaki showed off his mix of striking and submission savvy, while Rivera was blasted in 96 seconds by Eric Koch. Also add in the fact that Duran is a four-time Grappler's quest champion, and things begin looking really bleak for Rivera. At 2-1 Duran could still be worth some money, but could be even better in a parlay. I see Duran controlling the pace and eventually scoring a submission late in the 1st or early in the 2nd round.

Pick: Duran by submission

Scott Jorgensen (-600) vs. Ken Stone (+400) [BW]

This fights pits one-time Bantamweight contender Scott Jorgensen versus Ken Stone. For those who don't recall the name, he is best remembered as the man power-slammed into Valhalla by Eddie Wineland at WEC 53. Regardless of the vicious manner in which Stone was defeated he does have all the physical tools to be able to defeat someone like Jorgensen. This mixed with the fact that he is fighting out of Florida's premier MMA team, American Top Team, shold warrant an easy win for Stone. Unfortunately for him however I see him getting overwhelmed by Jorgensen's style. He'll be hit by some solid shots, and will eventually be overcome by exhaustion. At these odds this fight really isn't worth touching. I see Jorgensen winning an exciting fight by third-round stoppage.

Pick: Jorgensen by TKO

Clay Harvison (+150) vs. Justin Edwards (-180) [WW]

The thid fight of the night has The Ultimate Fighter 13 cast-offs Clay Harvison and Justin Edwards face-off. Although both came up short in trying to win the six figure contract, they still hold decent records coming into this fight. Both hold six wins in which all opponents were finished, while Harvison holds the lone loss between the two. What makes Harvison's record more impressive is that fact that none of his seven fights have ever reached the second round. As far as how they match-up stylistically it seem Harvison would much rather slug it out while Edwards would rather blanket take you down and finish you. This makes this fight interesting because we'll see who is willing to leave their comfort zone in order to try and make an exciting fight. The man I see doing this is Edwards. I see him coming out, and deciding to try his stand-up game against Harvison. He'll have some decent shots, but he'll soon realize it was a mistake getting himself into a shoot-out. He'll eventually resort to his takedown, but at this point Harvison will stuff them and force the fight back to the feet. I see Harvison stopping Edwards in the second, and at these odds is an absolutley great value pick.

Pick: Harvison by second-round stoppage

Shamar Bailey (-285) vs. Ryan McGillivray (+225) [WW]

In what could be the most one-sided and least exiciting fight of the night Ultimate Fighter quarter-finalists Shamar Bailey and Ryan McGillivray are set to do battle. Although there is no denying that Bailey is a talented fighter, his grinding style hasn't won over any fans. His opponent McGillivray has shown that he can hold his own when the cards are stacked against him, but he just won't offer anything new when it comes to trying to defeat Bailey. I see Bailey fighting his usual fight after getting frustrated on the feet early by McGillivray, and grinding out a dull unanimous decision win. As far as betting goes you can always throw some money at McGillivray since he just might pull out the win (Hell, Chris Cope did it), but I say avoid this fight unless you want to use Bailey as part of your parlay.

Pick: Bailey by UD

Josh Grispi (-550) vs. George Roop (+350) [FW]

Submission-Ace Josh "The Fluke" Grispi was at one time thought of as the man to dethrone Brazilian featherweight phenom, Jose Aldo. After losing his title-shot due to Aldo treating an injury, Grispi decided to take on unknown Dustin Porier. At this point Grispi was tearing through his competition in the WEC, and his only loss was to Henrique Bilcalho at Combat Zone 19 in 2006. In a bizarre twist of fate, "The Fluke" lost to Porier and is now set to show the world that his loss was just that. Grispi is set to fight George Roop in what most believe is what some in the boxing community call a "confidence builder" fight. Although Roop does have some interesting tools at his disposal he will have nothing to offer Grispi come fight time. I see a tentative Roop coming out in the first-round, and eventually getting taken down by Grispi. At this point Grispi can do whatever he pleases, and I see him making a short nights work of Roop. I have Grispie winning by submission in the first, and Roop getting cut from the UFC. As far as betting goes avoid this fight completely. You will not be making a profit regardless of who you put your money on due to the fact that Grispi is a 5-1 favorite, and Roop will most-assuredly lose.
Pick: Grispi by first-round submission

Jeremy Stephens (-350) vs. Danny Downes (+275) [LW]

The final preliminary of the night has Jeremy Stephen face off against Canadian Danny Downes. Stephens has developed as a fan favorite due to his mix of wrestling with vicious boxing. Downes however is best known for surviving as long as he did against fellow prospect Chris Horodecki. Downes did rebound with an upset win of Chinese fighter Tiequan Zhang in the WEC, and is now trying to start a streak. Unfortunately for him however, I see him getting punched into the next time zone by Stephens. Although Downes seems to be well-rounded he just doesn't seem to particularly excel at any one thing. For all I know Duke Rufous could have turned Downes into a kickboxing machine, but I hihgly doubt it. The only way I see Downes winning this is by nothing short of a miracle. At 3-1 there isn't much profit in putting money on Stephens unless you want to use him as a parlay.

Pick:Stephens by vicious KO

Main Card Bouts (To telvise on Spike TV)

Chris Cope (+135) vs. Chuck O' Neil (-165) [WW]

In the first televised fight of the night semi-finalists Chris Cope and Chuck O'Neil are set to do battle. Neither of the two have the prettiest fighting styles, but they are great at doing one thing in particular and that's applying constant pressure. Both fighters have adopted a style in which they constantly move towards their opponent, and with that movement comes punches. This will not be a technical fight by any means, but it should be fun while it lasts. Although both are so similar I see O'Neil winning by third roud stoppage due to him landing the cleaner and harder shots of the fight. When it comes to the betting you can make an argument for Cope being worth a couple bucks as an underdog pick. I for one say you're best off betting on O' Neil since the odds only favor him slightly below 2-1.
Pick: O' Neil by third-round stoppage

Tim Credeur (-115) vs. Ed Herman (-115) [MW]

The odds between Tim Credeur and Ed Herman are dead even for a reason. Due to some question marks both fighters are facing coming into this bout it makes this fight one of the hardest to call. The one thing that is guaranteed is that this will be a very technical fight. Both fighters are pre-dominantly submission fighters, but have eventually implemented a striking game to their array of techniques. What makes this fight so hard to call is the fact that neither fighter has fought in two years. With that question mark looming, its unknown who will be prepared mentally and physically come fight time. The only thing to do at this point is to tempt fate and flip a coin. I have Ed Herman by split decision.

Pick: Herman by split decision

Kyle Kingsbury (-185) vs. Fabio Maldonado (+155) [LHW]

The lone light-heavyweight contest of the night has Kyle Kingsbury fighting Brazilain Fabio Maldonado. Both have shown great athleticism, and are riding a big wave of momentum coming into this fight. Kingsbury is predominantly a wrestling-based striker, however he seems to have experience a career resurgence after undergoing a conditioning program created by the infamous Victor Conte himself. Maldonado however is currently riding an 11-fight win streak which is impressive in itself, but makes you question his quality of opposition. This is another fight that can go either way depending on which game plan each fighter chooses to implement. Kingbusry could win this as long as he dominates early, and is able to hold Maldonado down. On another note, Maldonado could win this by showing off his better striking while frustrating Kingsbury on the feet en-route to a stoppage win. For some reason however, I have this feeling that Kingsbury will pull through with the decision win. For betting purposes however your best bet (see what I did there) is to throw some money Maldonado's way.

Pick: Kingsbury by UD

Co-Main Event
Clay Guida (+170) vs. Anthony Pettis (-210) [LW]

In one of the most anticipated lightweight fights of the year, Clay Guida and Anthony Pettis are set to fight for position as the number one contender of the lightweight championship. Both fighters are riding some serious momentum coming into this fight. Guida is coming off a dominant win over former PRIDE super star Takanori Gomi, and another quality win of BJJ black-belt Rafael Dos Anjos. Pettis is coming off the complete handling of Shane Roller at WEC 50, and nabbed the lightweight Championship after going to war with then champ Benson Henderson. It's at this same time where Pettis unveiled to the world his patented "Showtime Kick" which really is something straight out of a damn movie. (Search it if you're one of the people who didn't see it endlessly replayed on ESPN). This fight has everything to be an absolutley dog fight, and is an early candidate for a potential fight of the year. As hard as this fight is to pick I'm going with my gut and picking Guida to win. I feel Guida may pull off the victory because Pettis' one loss came to Bart Palazewski after he was able to provide costant pressure and overwhelm Pettis to the point where Pettis became frustrated. That is Guida's style to a T, except Guida is even better and more relentless. There is still always a chance that Pettis will do something fantastic and further increase his stock, but I feel that Guida might just be too much. For betting you really can't go wrong with either of these two fighters. The best value however is Guida as the underdog pick.

Pick: Guida by split-decision in an all-out firefight

Main Event
Tony Ferguson (-115) vs. Ramsey Nijem (-115) [WW]

The night's main event has finalists Tony Ferguson and Ramsey Nijem competing for the six-figure contract and title of "Ultimate Fighter". There is no denying that these two welterweights were the most talented of the crop, but I still feel this won't necessarily be the hardest fight to predict. Ramsey has shown the ability to mix his striking with his wrestling base, although his wrestling is clearly his strongest point. Ferguson however seems to be the all aroudn better fighter. He has shown the ability to finish a fight whether it be standing or on rhe ground which i think will ultimately be the difference maker in this fight. I have Ferguson winning a fairly one-sided fight by stoppage in the second. As for betting you can;t go wrong with either pick on account of the even odds, however Ferguson is clearly the better choice since he seems to have more tools at his disposal.

Pick: Ferguson by TKO in the second

UFC 130: Preview and Predictions

Memorial Day weekend should mark a fun couple days if you're an MMA fan. On Saturday night the UFC is holding their annual Memorial Day weekend fight card, while in Japan FEG is holding their DREAM.17 event. I'll be keeping this blog local, and will offer a run down of Saturday's fights from top-to-bottom. If you're a fan of combat sports you just might enjoy this. If you're a gambler you just might enjoy this. If you came across this by accident you most likely won't know what you've gotten yourself into. Regardless, sit back and enjoy the read.

 *Odds provided by sportsbook.com

Preliminary Card

Gleison Tibau (-340) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (+260) [LW]

The first fight of the night pits massive lightweight Gleison Tibau vs Rafaello "Tractor" Oliveira. Honestly, there isn't much to predict about this fight. Oliveira is a late replacement of a late replacement, and I doubt he is fully prepared for an opponent of Tibau's caliber. If he had more time to prepare I'd give Oliveira a great chance, but I really don't see him doing anything aside from getting overwhelmed and dominated for three rounds. As far as the betting odds go, I'm just surprised Tibau isn't a bigger betting favorite. Regardless, these odds shouldn't be touched, and I see Tibau winning this fight by whatever the hell he wants.

Pick: Gleison Tibau by lopsided decision


Chris Cariaso (+300) vs. Michael McDonald (-500) [BW]

Similar to the first match of the night, this one also involves a late-replacement. In the second match of the evening Chris Cariaso is set to fight Michael McDonald who is currently riding a wave of hype after his fighth of the night performance against Edwin Figueroa. Cariaso was originally slated to fight Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto, but unfortunately for him McDonald was tapped as his new opponent. Cariaso has a chance to submit, or perhaps to even TKO McDonald by some miracle, but I see McDonald coming at Cariaso early and finishing him early in the second. At these odds its best to just pass this match by unless you want to use McDonald as an anchor for your parlay.

Pick: McDonald by TKO

Renan Barao (-350) vs. Cole Escovedo (+275)  [FW]

After a few years, Escovedo has finally earned his shot back onto the big stage after compiling some solid wins in regional shows. Unfortunately however, his homecoming is against highly-touted Brazilian prospect Renan Barao. This should be a fun fight to watch while it lasts, and I highly doubt there will be a slow moment between Barao's striking prowess and Escovedo's experience. Even at these odds Escovedo could be worth a couple bucks as the underdog pick, but I'd advise against it. Save your money or include Barao in your parlay because I see him controlling the pace against Escovedo and winning via late-stoppage or unanimous decision.

Pick: Barao by late-stoppage (TKO)

Miguel Torres (-120) vs. Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (-110) [BW]

In the most intriguing match-up of the prelims, former bantamweight kingpin Miguel Torres is pitted against Demetrious Johnson. This should be an all action fight due to the frantic pace both are known to keep, and should be fun all the way through. Most are siding with Torres due to his moving to Firas Zahabi's camp and his massive frame for the weight-class, but I feel Johnson has all the tools necessary to beat him. Torres has the ability to submit Johnson or even pepper him with shots all the way to a decision victory, but I see Johson mixing his striking seamlessly with his takedowns and grinding out a decision win. At these odds you really can't go wrong with either fighter since they can each win the fight in their own respects. However for your top dollar put your cash down on Johnson and prepare to make a nice profit.

Pick: Johnson by UD

Kendall Grove (-150) vs. Tim Boetsch (+120) [MW]

The final prelim of the night has Ultimate Fighter winner Kendall Grove matched up against Tim Boetsch. Both man are most likely fighting for their jobs considering they have both come up short on their last showings. Grove can be a real threat due to his lanky frame, and there's always the chance that he can slap a submission on Boetsch. Recently however, he seems to be his own worst enemy and has been finished due to his limited gas tank. Boetsch is also an unknown factor in that this is the first time he will be cutting down to 185 lbs. from 205 lbs. where he fought for all of his career. Both have a couple question marks in regards to certain factors coming into the fight, but it seems the Boetsch is the best pick as far as prediction choice and betting option. I see Boetsch taking Grove into deep water, and finishing him in the third.

Pick: Boetsch by TKO in the third

Main Card

Thiago Alves (-220) vs. Rick Story (+180) [WW]

The first fight of the broadcast is a fight that should be guaranteed fireworks. Thiago Alves is known as a vicious Brazilians striker, while Story is known to overwhelm opponents with his mix of striking and wrestling. Both men are coming off wins, and are hoping to reach that contender status once again. This is a close match on paper, but I honestly see Alves completely outclassing story on the feet. Story can make things interesting however if he falls back on his wrestling, and grinds out Alves to a decision. It can be argued that each man is worth some money, but I'd go with the favorite in this one and pick Alves to win by TKO in the second.

Pick: Alves by TKO

Brian Stann (-140) vs. Jorge Santiago (+110) [MW]

This is without a doubt the best fight on this card. Both men are coming off big wins and career-defining performances. In Stann's last outing he knocked out granite jawed Chris Leben in spectacular fashion, while Santiago made waves in Japan (good god, a tsunami pun) with his five-round war aginst Kazuo Misaki under the Sengoku banner. Santiago has finally made it back into the UFC, and is a completely different fighter from the one he used to be. It's understandable as to why Stann is the favorite considering his proven power, but I have a feeling that Santiago will surprise everyone and score the dramatic upset. I say Santiago is worth some money and should net you a nice proft should he come with the victory.

Pick: Santiago by TKO

Stefan Struve (+110) vs. Travis Browne (-140) [HW]

In a battle of giants it astounds me as to why Struve is the betting underdog in this match. Struve is coming off a hard fought win against Christian Morecraft, and a grappling exhibition against Sean McCorkle. Browne however is coming off a win against a very undersized James McSweeney, and a draw against Cheick Kongo. Based on quality wins alone Struve should have the advantage. Struve has also proven he can bounce back from being in a bad position, and still come out to finish the fight. Looking back on everything it should be a no-brainer that Struve is the best value pick as far as betting odds go. I see him having a slow first round, but eventually submitting Browne in the second.

Pick: Struve by Submission

Co-Main Event
Frank Mir (-135) vs. Roy Nelson (+105) [HW]

This is a surprisingly difficult fight to call on acount of we don't know just which Frank Mir might show up on Saturday night. On his best nights Mir is an absolutley wrecking machine as proven against Cheick Kongo, but at times he seems uninspired and sluggish as was the case against Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic. If Mir shows up on his A game he will completley outclass Nelson in every regard and win a lopsided unanimous decision. However, there is always the chance that Mir will show up looking sluggish. If thats the case he will be overwhelmed by Nelson's size and grappling. As far as the betting lines go, Nelson is the better value. My prediction for the fight though is that Mir will dominate Nelson en-route to a decision victory.

Pick: Mir by UD

Main Event
Quentin "Rampage" Jackson (-260) vs. Matt Hamill (+200) [LHW]

There's no denying the fact that this is a relatively lack luster main event, Regardless, it should be a fun fight while it lasts. Both men are coming off impressive wins where they were both betting underdogs, and are now fighting for what could be a number-one contenders match. What makes this match interesting will be both fighters' mentality. This is Hamill's biggest test to date, while this seems to be a relative step down for Rampage. The issue with this ofcourse is that this can lead to Rampage becoming unmotivated (as he has in the past), and losing to Hamill since he has over looked him. In my opinion that is the only way in which Hamill really can win this fight. There's no denying his wrestling pedigree, but I feel that Rampage will just be too much for him. If Rampage comes into this with the right mindset I see him winning this by vicious knockout in the early rounds. As far as the betting goes, my pick goes to Hamill since there is always the chance for an upset and therefore a nice profit.

Pick: Jackson by KO