*Odds provided by sportsbook.com
Preliminary Card
Gleison Tibau (-340) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (+260) [LW]
The first fight of the night pits massive lightweight Gleison Tibau vs Rafaello "Tractor" Oliveira. Honestly, there isn't much to predict about this fight. Oliveira is a late replacement of a late replacement, and I doubt he is fully prepared for an opponent of Tibau's caliber. If he had more time to prepare I'd give Oliveira a great chance, but I really don't see him doing anything aside from getting overwhelmed and dominated for three rounds. As far as the betting odds go, I'm just surprised Tibau isn't a bigger betting favorite. Regardless, these odds shouldn't be touched, and I see Tibau winning this fight by whatever the hell he wants.
Pick: Gleison Tibau by lopsided decisionChris Cariaso (+300) vs. Michael McDonald (-500) [BW]
Similar to the first match of the night, this one also involves a late-replacement. In the second match of the evening Chris Cariaso is set to fight Michael McDonald who is currently riding a wave of hype after his fighth of the night performance against Edwin Figueroa. Cariaso was originally slated to fight Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto, but unfortunately for him McDonald was tapped as his new opponent. Cariaso has a chance to submit, or perhaps to even TKO McDonald by some miracle, but I see McDonald coming at Cariaso early and finishing him early in the second. At these odds its best to just pass this match by unless you want to use McDonald as an anchor for your parlay.Renan Barao (-350) vs. Cole Escovedo (+275) [FW]
After a few years, Escovedo has finally earned his shot back onto the big stage after compiling some solid wins in regional shows. Unfortunately however, his homecoming is against highly-touted Brazilian prospect Renan Barao. This should be a fun fight to watch while it lasts, and I highly doubt there will be a slow moment between Barao's striking prowess and Escovedo's experience. Even at these odds Escovedo could be worth a couple bucks as the underdog pick, but I'd advise against it. Save your money or include Barao in your parlay because I see him controlling the pace against Escovedo and winning via late-stoppage or unanimous decision.Miguel Torres (-120) vs. Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (-110) [BW]
In the most intriguing match-up of the prelims, former bantamweight kingpin Miguel Torres is pitted against Demetrious Johnson. This should be an all action fight due to the frantic pace both are known to keep, and should be fun all the way through. Most are siding with Torres due to his moving to Firas Zahabi's camp and his massive frame for the weight-class, but I feel Johnson has all the tools necessary to beat him. Torres has the ability to submit Johnson or even pepper him with shots all the way to a decision victory, but I see Johson mixing his striking seamlessly with his takedowns and grinding out a decision win. At these odds you really can't go wrong with either fighter since they can each win the fight in their own respects. However for your top dollar put your cash down on Johnson and prepare to make a nice profit.Kendall Grove (-150) vs. Tim Boetsch (+120) [MW]
The final prelim of the night has Ultimate Fighter winner Kendall Grove matched up against Tim Boetsch. Both man are most likely fighting for their jobs considering they have both come up short on their last showings. Grove can be a real threat due to his lanky frame, and there's always the chance that he can slap a submission on Boetsch. Recently however, he seems to be his own worst enemy and has been finished due to his limited gas tank. Boetsch is also an unknown factor in that this is the first time he will be cutting down to 185 lbs. from 205 lbs. where he fought for all of his career. Both have a couple question marks in regards to certain factors coming into the fight, but it seems the Boetsch is the best pick as far as prediction choice and betting option. I see Boetsch taking Grove into deep water, and finishing him in the third.Main Card
Thiago Alves (-220) vs. Rick Story (+180) [WW]
The first fight of the broadcast is a fight that should be guaranteed fireworks. Thiago Alves is known as a vicious Brazilians striker, while Story is known to overwhelm opponents with his mix of striking and wrestling. Both men are coming off wins, and are hoping to reach that contender status once again. This is a close match on paper, but I honestly see Alves completely outclassing story on the feet. Story can make things interesting however if he falls back on his wrestling, and grinds out Alves to a decision. It can be argued that each man is worth some money, but I'd go with the favorite in this one and pick Alves to win by TKO in the second.Brian Stann (-140) vs. Jorge Santiago (+110) [MW]
This is without a doubt the best fight on this card. Both men are coming off big wins and career-defining performances. In Stann's last outing he knocked out granite jawed Chris Leben in spectacular fashion, while Santiago made waves in Japan (good god, a tsunami pun) with his five-round war aginst Kazuo Misaki under the Sengoku banner. Santiago has finally made it back into the UFC, and is a completely different fighter from the one he used to be. It's understandable as to why Stann is the favorite considering his proven power, but I have a feeling that Santiago will surprise everyone and score the dramatic upset. I say Santiago is worth some money and should net you a nice proft should he come with the victory.Stefan Struve (+110) vs. Travis Browne (-140) [HW]
In a battle of giants it astounds me as to why Struve is the betting underdog in this match. Struve is coming off a hard fought win against Christian Morecraft, and a grappling exhibition against Sean McCorkle. Browne however is coming off a win against a very undersized James McSweeney, and a draw against Cheick Kongo. Based on quality wins alone Struve should have the advantage. Struve has also proven he can bounce back from being in a bad position, and still come out to finish the fight. Looking back on everything it should be a no-brainer that Struve is the best value pick as far as betting odds go. I see him having a slow first round, but eventually submitting Browne in the second.Co-Main Event
Frank Mir (-135) vs. Roy Nelson (+105) [HW]
This is a surprisingly difficult fight to call on acount of we don't know just which Frank Mir might show up on Saturday night. On his best nights Mir is an absolutley wrecking machine as proven against Cheick Kongo, but at times he seems uninspired and sluggish as was the case against Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic. If Mir shows up on his A game he will completley outclass Nelson in every regard and win a lopsided unanimous decision. However, there is always the chance that Mir will show up looking sluggish. If thats the case he will be overwhelmed by Nelson's size and grappling. As far as the betting lines go, Nelson is the better value. My prediction for the fight though is that Mir will dominate Nelson en-route to a decision victory.Main Event
Quentin "Rampage" Jackson (-260) vs. Matt Hamill (+200) [LHW]
There's no denying the fact that this is a relatively lack luster main event, Regardless, it should be a fun fight while it lasts. Both men are coming off impressive wins where they were both betting underdogs, and are now fighting for what could be a number-one contenders match. What makes this match interesting will be both fighters' mentality. This is Hamill's biggest test to date, while this seems to be a relative step down for Rampage. The issue with this ofcourse is that this can lead to Rampage becoming unmotivated (as he has in the past), and losing to Hamill since he has over looked him. In my opinion that is the only way in which Hamill really can win this fight. There's no denying his wrestling pedigree, but I feel that Rampage will just be too much for him. If Rampage comes into this with the right mindset I see him winning this by vicious knockout in the early rounds. As far as the betting goes, my pick goes to Hamill since there is always the chance for an upset and therefore a nice profit.